The Other 85 Percent

What will higher education look like in 10 years?

October 23, 2008 | Filed under: Capella, Capella University, The Other 85 Percent, distance learning, elearning, higher education, online education, online learning, online university

The US Department of Education has released its ten-year forecast of higher education enrollments.  Coverage in this article and others perpetuate the prevalent bias that college enrollment consists mainly of 18-22 year old students who progress from high school to full-time on-campus study while remaining financially dependent on their parents.  This is predicated on the notion that an undergraduate degree should be completed in four years.  Note that the article specifically calls out such information as changes in the number of high school graduates and the proportion of high school graduates under age 21 who are enrolled in college.  There is no specific reference to adult, part-time or financially independent students.  To those readers who do not go to the primary source, it would appear that the forecast only deals with high school graduates going on to college. 

But that is not the whole story.  It is merely another example of what Peter J. Stokes referred to as “hidden in plain sight” in his paper to the Spelling’s Commission on the Future of Higher Education.

Mr. Stokes was referring only to adult students.  Also hidden in plain site is the large number of 18-22 year olds who are either part-time students or who are financially independent.  Both the part-time and financially independent students work and face many of the same challenges as older students.  This large group of higher education students, the other 85 percent, is ignored because the discussion of higher education and higher education policy is totally dominated by the prevailing misconception that higher education is about the young student living on campus, studying full-time with support from parents.

So, what does the ten-year projection (from 2006 to 2017), tell us about the other 85 percent?  First, the Department of Education projections are structured with three sets of numbers:  a low projection, a middle projection and a high projection.  I am using the middle projections for this discussion.  Second, there are four factors that make up the 85% and only two are projected by the Department of Education.  Those four elements are students over the age of 21 (I would prefer over the age of 22 but the data are not structured that way), students under the age of 22 who study part-time, students under the age of 22 who are financially independent, and students under the age of 22 who are studying in an environment other than a campus (online, for example).  The projection for 2008 shows that there are 18,200,000 total enrollments in American higher education.  Of those, 10,334,000 (57% of the total) are students over the age of 21.  Of those students under the age of 22, 1,424,000 (8% of the total) are enrolled part-time.  That means that currently the projection is that about 65% of college students are either older students or studying part-time.  Again, there is no data on those under age 22 who are financially independent or studying in a non-campus environment.  When we look out to 2017, the total number of students increases to 20,080,000 and those over the age of 21 increases to 11,951,000 (60% of the total) while those under 22 who are part-time decreases slightly to 1,406,000 (7% of the total).

Another way to look at the data is to use the definition of adult as a student who is 25 or older.  The report projects that the population of adult students (25 and older) will increase between 2006 and 2017.  The number of students age 25 to 34 will increase by 27% while the number of students over 34 years of age will increase by 8%.  Contrast this to the growth of students 18-24 at 10%.   Looking at this in terms of full-time and part-time students, full-time students will increase by 13% and part-time students by 12%.  If you look at the projected higher education population (20,080,000) in 2017 you will see that 8,198,000 (41%) are adults (over age 24).  In addition, 2,644,000 (13% of the total) will be 18-24 year old students enrolled as part-time students.  Taken in combination and allowing for an additional percentage of 18-24 year old students who are financially independent or are not attending college on a campus means a clear majority of higher education students will not fit the prevailing stereotype of the college student profile.

I would like to note that, while overall little change is projected over the ten years covered by the report, there is notable change in the makeup of the student population.  The projection is that white students will increase by 5% but black (26%), Hispanic (39%), Asian/Pacific Islander (26%) and American Indian/Alaska Native (30%) students will increase by much larger percentages.

Back to the prevailing profile.  When can we expect that reporters, educators, policy-makers and the public will recognize that adult, part-time and financially independent students actually make up the large majority of the current higher education population? That this is projected to be the case for the next ten years and more?  And that public policy and support for this large number of students is not being adequately addressed?

I welcome your insights into this report.

Mike

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